Crude Oil Price Analysis for July 13, 2017

Thursday, 13 Jul, 2017

This news comes as the American Petroleum Institute reports a massive 8.133-million-barrel drop in US crude supply.

Oil prices are getting a wakeup call after a lowering of the U.S. oil production outlook, a report of a major drop in USA oil supply and a warning by S&P to oil majors cut to back more and reduce debt levels or face downgrades. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading up 1.75% at $45.83 a barrel.

API reported a draw of 8.13 million barrels of crude oil.

The producer group's total output jumped by about 393,500 barrels a day to a total of 32.6 million barrels a day last month, according to independent assessments cited by OPEC in a monthly report, CNBC reported.

On that assumption, we are lowering our end-of-year forecast on Brent crude oil from $58/b in Q2 down to $53/b.

The world's greatest oil exporter helped yield from 9.88 million barrels a day in May, outperforming the point of confinement of 10.058 million it acknowledged in an understanding amongst OPEC and other real providers including Russian Federation. "Although inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is now estimated to have increased at an annual rate of only 1.5 percent in the first quarter, more-recent indicators suggest that growth rebounded in the second quarter".

OPEC's oil exports declined in June by 250,000 barrels per day.

Oil prices have slumped into a bear market on concern that production cuts implemented by Opec and Russian Federation since the start of the year aren't deep enough to clear a global glut, while United States shale-oil producers are gearing up to fill in any shortfall.

A Saudi industry source said that Riyadh planned to reduce shipments in August by more than 600,000 bpd, taking exports for that month to their lowest this year.

The EIA expects demand for petroleum and other liquids to rise by 360,000 barrels a day, or 1.8 percent, next year.

While drillers may lament lower oil prices, consumers will continue to get a break at the pump. Within half an hour, oil had given back all but about 15 cents of its gain. Barclays cut its 2017 and 2018 Brent forecasts to $52 a barrel for both years from $55 for 2017 and $57 for 2018.

Although the production cut by OPEC has supported prices, the recent weeks have seen production grow in Libya and Nigeria, the two OPEC countries exempted from the cut.

The increase takes Saudi production slightly above its OPEC production target of 10.058 million bpd for the first month this year, although on average in 2017, output remains below the target, an OPEC source said.

The restart of the Forcados loading for oil export propelled Nigeria to the top spot in oil production among African countries. Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped more than 10 million barrels a day in June, exceeding the production cap agreed past year for the first time.